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A Budget for Business? Definitely maybe!  23/6/2010

The new coalition Government’s first Budget had one clear premise - that we needed to cut the structural deficit faster and further than had been proposed by its predecessor.

The measures announced by Chancellor George Osborne lay out a commitment to eliminate the deficit completely by 2015-2016, and he has clearly made an effort to accommodate the needs of business in his planning.

But can it truly be called a Budget for Business?

A number of headline measures that are likely to secure welcome responses from the business community include headline reductions in Corporation Tax - although capital allowances.adjustments will offset some of the benefits, some broad messages of commitment to infrastructure spending, less radical moves on Capital Gains Tax than might have been feared and extending to £5m the 10% capital gains rate for entrepreneurs.

No increase in duty on whisky and the review of the position on aviation duty should be welcomed from a Glasgow perspective, as should the exemption from employers’ National Insurance contributions for new starts outside the South East of England.

There will be definite concerns amongst retailers, tourism and other consumer facing businesses about the implications of the headline VAT rise, tempered slightly by the decision to delay the increase to January possibly boosting spending during the intervening months.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, the new independent monitor of official government forecasts and fiscal plans, has given a flavour of the slower growth and higher unemployment we must accept to make early progress on deficit reduction and secure faster growth thereafter.

Having learnt the hard way in 2008 how much faith we should place on any one economic forecast, or for that matter on the broad economic forecasting consensus, we have to hope fervently that the Government is  without badly damaging the pace of recovery getting correct the judgement needed to satisfy money market requirements.

 We have to believe that the impact of several trading partners all tackling budget deficits simultaneously will not undermine growth in our export markets and that the spending cuts and tax increases do not undermine consumer confidence in markets at home.

These next few months will remain a tense experience as we keep our fingers crossed for continuing recovery.

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